AI-Powered Sales Forecasting for a Caregiver Agency’s Service Demand Planning

A regional caregiver agency offering homecare and personal assistance services to elderly and medically dependent clients. Their operations span multiple territories with variable demand influenced by seasons, healthcare trends, and referral patterns.

The Need:
The agency needed a predictive model to forecast service requests and client acquisition trends. Their manual estimation process was prone to inaccuracies, leading to poor resource planning, under-allocation of caregivers, and missed growth opportunities.

Our Solution:
We implemented a forecasting engine using open-source ML frameworks (Prophet, XGBoost, pandas). The system leveraged historical booking data, regional performance, referral activity, and calendar patterns to predict demand. It integrated with existing CRM and scheduling tools to guide staffing and marketing decisions.

Outcome Achieved:

• Delivered accurate 30/60/90-day forecasts across service regions
• Optimized caregiver recruitment and onboarding to match demand cycles
• Enabled data-backed planning for marketing and outreach efforts
• Reduced idle caregiver hours and staffing gaps during peak periods
• Improved leadership visibility into sales trends and expansion zones